I know, I know. You’re thinking, “A post about the next pandemic?!”

Some will insist, “We’re not done with the current one!” Others will, with the wave of a hand counter, “I’m so tired of this conversation, let’s move on. How about sushi for lunch?”

Now, however, is the perfect time to assess what happened and how matters should be handled in the next global emergency.

Scientists are already on the case. A recent study conducted by the University of Manchester and Imperial College London analyzed the relative effects of different non-pharmacological interventions aimed at controlling the spread of COVID-19. The investigation is notable for both its scope and rigor, analyzing data from 130 countries and accounting for date and strictness of implementation! The results are sure to surprise you. For example, consistent with my own, simple analysis of US state-by-state data published in the summer of 2020, researchers found, “no association between mandatory stay-at-home interventions on cross-country Covid-19 mortality after adjusting for other non-pharmaceutical interventions concurrently introduced.” Read for yourself what approaches did make a difference.

One non-pharmacological intervention that was not included in the analysis was the involvement of “human factors” experts — sociologists, anthropologists, psychologist, implementation scientists — in the development and implementation of COVID mitigation efforts. Indeed, those leading the process treated the last two years like a virus problem rather than a human management problem. The results speak for themselves. Beyond the division and death, the US is experiencing a dramatic mental health crisis, especially among our nation’s youth.

Which brings me to the latest edition of The Book Case — the podcast I do together with my friend and colleague Dr. Dan Lewis. In it, we consider two books with varying perspectives on the outbreak of COVID-19. As acknowledged at the outset of this post, I understand you may already have made up your mind. Whatever you’ve decided, I believe these two books will give you pause to reconsider and refine your thinking.

That’s all for now. Until next time,

Scott

Scott D. Miller, Ph.D.
Director, International Center for Clinical Effectiveness